THE VALLEY LEDGER · STILLWATER, MN 55082 · WEEK OF OCTOBER 18, 2026

Eight In, Nine Out: Why I’m Calling a Buyer’s Market in Stillwater

Stillwater, MN 55082 market report for the week of October 18, 2026. The Market Action Index slipped to 42 and 31% of listings have cut their price. And yet the Penthouse at 501 Main Street just set a Stillwater record.

This week was quieter on the new-listing side in Stillwater: eight new single-family listings in 55082 and, unusually, no coming-soon listings at all. It would be easy to chalk that up to MEA weekend, with schools out Thursday and Friday and plenty of families up north or out of town. I don’t think that’s the whole story. Nine homes went under contract over the same stretch, so buyers didn’t take the weekend off.

The number that tells the story is the Market Action Index, which slipped to 42 this week from 44 a month ago. So for the first time in a few years, I’m going to say it: we are in a buyer’s market.

Why I’m making the call at 42

If you open the Altos Research report yourself, you’ll see a 42 still labeled “Slight Seller’s Advantage.” That label is a fixed line on a 0–100 scale. The direction is the story, and Altos’s own read of the trend says what I’m seeing on the ground: demand is running low relative to the homes available, and prices are giving ground.

Look at what sits underneath the 42. Thirty-one percent of active listings have reduced their price, and not one has raised it. Nineteen percent are relisted, which usually means a home came off the market and came back after not selling at its first price. Inventory is up to 75 homes. Price per square foot has eased to $247. The index itself has worked its way down from the high 50s earlier this year. When this many signals point the same direction for this long, waiting for a label to flip would just mean telling you late.

Eight in, nine out

Here’s the part that keeps this from being a gloomy update. Nine contracts against eight new listings means the homes that were priced and presented well found their buyers. A buyer’s market doesn’t mean the buyers have gone away. It means they’re choosing, and they’re choosing the homes that make sense on day one.

The gap is closing

The median list price is $720,000. The median price of homes that came on this week is $674,900. That’s a $45,100 difference. A month ago, in the September 20 edition, the same gap was $135,000. The overall median is coming down to meet where sellers are now pricing. From the inside, this is what a correction in asking prices looks like: not a crash, a convergence.

Four markets inside one ZIP code

A buyer’s market isn’t uniform. Altos splits 55082 into four equal slices by price, and each one is behaving differently.

The top tier ($1,875,000) is where buyers hold the most leverage: 77 median days on market, two new listings against one absorbed, and mostly newer construction on acreage. The upper tier ($859,900) is moving at 28 days. The lower tier ($650,000) shows the fastest number at 14 days, but part of that is freshness: six new listings landed there this week and none have been absorbed yet, so watch whether they go under contract. The entry tier ($364,900) sits at 45 days, with three homes absorbed, the most of any tier.

If you’re selling

Price for the market you’re in, not the one we had in the spring. Nearly a third of your competition has already cut its price, and buyers can see that history. The first two weeks on the market are still when you get the most attention, so the home needs to be priced and prepared correctly at launch rather than corrected later. Winter listings can work well in Stillwater; the buyers out in November and December tend to be serious ones.

If you’re weighing this fall against spring 2027, an Equity & Strategy Review is a private, no-obligation look at what your home would likely bring now, what waiting could cost or gain, and what preparation would pay off.

If you’re buying

This is the first fall in years when you can negotiate with some confidence: on price, on inspection items, and on seller-paid concessions. Listings that have been sitting past 60 days and have already been reduced are often the most open to a conversation. Don’t assume every home is negotiable, though. The well-priced ones in the $650,000 range are still moving in about two weeks.

A record on Main Street, in a buyer’s market

Everything above says buyers have the leverage right now. So it’s worth pausing on this: the Penthouse at 501 Main Street, my listing, SOLD.

I’ve walked past that corner of downtown my whole life. My family has been in Stillwater for four generations, and there are only a handful of places anywhere in the Valley that take in the river, the Lift Bridge and the bluffs the way that rooftop does. Homes like this rarely trade. When one does, the price is set by how well it’s positioned and who gets to see it, not by the weekly averages.

That’s the lesson for sellers in a buyer’s market. The averages describe the typical home. A distinctive property, priced with conviction and put in front of the right buyers through the Sotheby’s International Realty network, can still set the high-water mark.

Selling from a distance, whether you’re abroad, wintering elsewhere or settling an estate from out of state, is something I handle regularly. If you own a one-of-a-kind property in the St. Croix Valley, let’s talk about what it could bring, even in this market.

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