In 33 years of selling homes in the St. Croix Valley, I have learned that markets rarely turn in a single week. They lean. This fall, Stillwater is leaning.

The Altos Research Market Action Index for single-family homes in Stillwater, Minnesota (55082) slipped to 41 this past week. Earlier in 2026 we were reading in the high 50s. One week is a data point; months of steady decline is a direction. Demand is cooling relative to supply, buyers have more choices and more time, and sellers are adjusting.

Prices are starting to come down. But let me be clear about what this is and what it is not: this is a market returning to negotiation. It is not a fire sale.

Reading the 41: what the Market Action Index is telling us

The Market Action Index compares how quickly homes are being absorbed against how much inventory is available. Altos treats readings above 30 as favoring sellers and readings below 30 as favoring buyers. At 41, Stillwater technically remains on the seller’s side of that line. The trend is what matters: the slide from the high 50s tells us leverage has been moving steadily toward buyers all season.

In plain terms, homes that are priced right and presented well are still selling in Stillwater, Bayport, Oak Park Heights, Lake Elmo, Afton and Marine on St. Croix. Homes that are not are sitting, and they are the ones taking the price reductions.

If you are selling this fall: three things that are no longer optional

Price it right on day one

Your strongest showing activity comes in the first two weeks. In a cooling market, a home that launches too high and then chases the market down almost always nets less than one priced correctly from the start. Buyers today are watching days on market, and they notice reductions.

Fix everything that is broken

When buyers have options, every deferred repair becomes a negotiating chip on the other side of the table. Handle it before you list. A clean inspection protects your price far better than a credit offered after the fact.

Dress the home for success

Presentation is not decoration. Thoughtful preparation, staging and professional photography decide whether a buyer books the showing at all. In this market, the best-presented homes set the pace, and everything else is compared against them.

If you are buying: this is the moment to buy right

Buyers in Stillwater have more room right now than they have had all year: more inventory to compare, more time to decide, and more flexibility on price, inspection items and terms. That is good news, but it is not the whole story.

What you first pay for a home is where, in the end, most of your equity is made. Buying right means knowing which homes are fairly priced and which have been sitting for a reason. In the St. Croix Valley, that reason is often local and hard to see from a listing: a drainage history on a particular street, shoreland permitting limits on a river property, or a comparable sale an outside appraiser would misread. That knowledge is where an advisor earns their fee.

Main Street Trick or Treat: Stillwater showed up

On Sunday, thousands of children and their families filled downtown Stillwater for Main Street Trick or Treat, moving shop to shop as local businesses handed out treats under a bright October sky. Our team was out front on Main Street, and we went through more than 1,000 pieces of candy before the afternoon was over.

As a fourth-generation Stillwater resident, I can tell you this is the part of our town no market report can measure. Afternoons like this are a reminder that the numbers we track every week describe a real community, and that is what makes homes here worth what they are worth.